Review of Cradle Will Rock (1999) by Katie R — 30 Jun 2004

[u]Best Picture[/u].

[b]Alexander.

[i]The Aviator[/i].

Closer.

Finding Neverland.

Vanity Fair[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: [b]Proof, The Life Aquatic, The Phantom of the Opera[/b].

At this point (you know, the point where we don't actually know much about the pictures) it would be stupid to say The Aviator isn't the best bet. It's a huge story of old Hollywood, and Oscar should love it. Advanced reviews of Closer say it's nothing short of incredible, and it may surpass Garden State as the biggest indie of the year. Alexander could be great or really suck (I have a feeling it may be the latter) but it's an historical epic, so I'm not counting it out at this point. The Finding Neverland trailer is pure oscar bait, and it's a biopic with a great cast. Vanity Fair, aside from having a great cast, is classic oscar fair. Proof could squeeze in there if it's really good, but advanced word is that it's not so great. If The Life Aquatic can overcome quirkiness and coast on Bill Murray's newfound star power, it could garner a nod. The Phantom of the Opera is following the recent musical craze at the oscars, but adaptaing something so well-loved is a gamble, and it's starring two stars who have yet to make it big.

[u]Best Actor[/u].

Jim Carrey, [b]Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind[/b].

[i]Johnny Depp, [b]Finding Neverland[/b][/i].

Leonardo DiCaprio, [b]The Aviator[/b].

Jude Law, [b]Closer[/b].

Bill Murray, [b]The Life Aquatic[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: Tom Hanks, [b]The Terminal[/b]; Tom Cruise, [b]Collateral[/b]; Colin Farrel, [b]A Home at the End of the World[/b].

Jim Carrey recieved rave reviews for his touching turn in Eternal Sunshine, and he's an actor who hasn't even recieved his due in nominations, so this is looking like his year to finally get some academy respect. Depp seems to be the fortrunner at this point. He's playing a loved writer in a biopic, and he has an accent. DiCaprio will ride The Aviator's success to nomination. Jude Law is supposedly fantastic in Closer, and it's a big year for him film-wise. Bill Murray will probably ride Oscar's love from last year to a nomination, but Oscar has shown time and time again that they aren't big on quirky comedy. Hanks has recieved great reviews recently for the Terminal, but it's summer release and less than glowing critical reception will hinder his chances. Cruise is always great when playing assholes, and Michael Mann always gets the best performances from his leading men, but the film doesn't look oscar-friendly. Colin Farrel will probably split his vote between his supposedly great performance in the supposedly less than great A Home at the End of the World and his epic portrayl of Alexander.

[u]Best Actress[/u].

Joan Allen, [b]The Upside of Anger[/b].

Gwenyth Paltrow, [b]Proof[/b].

[i]Kate Winslet, [b]Finding Neverland[/b][/i].

Reese Witherspoon,[b] Vanity Fair[/b].

Naomi Watts, [b]We Don't Live Here Anymore[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: Renee Zellweger, [b]Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason[/b]; Nicole Kidman,[b] Dogville[/b]; Samantha Morton, [b]The Libertine[/b].

Oscar likes Joan Allen, if the movie turns out even halfway good, she should get recognition. Paltrow is apparently the best thing about Proof. Winslet will be coming off a huge year with both Neverland and Sunshine, and the Academy won't be able to ignore her. She'll probably nab the nod for the more oscar-friendly film, and since she's wya overdue, she'll probably win this year, finally. Reese Witherspoon will hopefully put her talent to good use in a serious turn in Vanity Fair. She looks great in the trailer. Watts will hopefully ride last year's oscar love to another nom for another little film. Buzz from Sundance was that she was great, but she's also got a lot of films coming out, so she may get a nom in supporting for Stay or The Assassination of Richard Nixon. Zellweger should be in the race, considering The Edge of Reason is even goofier than the first. Kidman has been getting early oscar buzz for Dogville, but it had such an early release and was met with such mixed reactions I'm not betting on a nomination. Morton may surprise again if The Libertine actually gets released this year.

[u].

Best Supporting Actor[/u].

Jim Broadbent, [b]Vanity Fair[/b].

Morgan Freeman, [b]An Unfinished Life[/b].

Ryan Gosling, [b]Stay[/b].

Anthony Hopkins, [b]Proof[/b].

[i]Clive Owen, [b]Closer[/b][/i].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: Peter Sarsgaard, [b]Garden State[/b]; Don Cheadle, [b]Crash[/b]; Willem Dafoe, [b]The Life Aquatic[/b].

Vanity Fair's supporting cast is so huge it could be anybody. I think VF will definitely score a nomination in this category, but I really don't know who for. If James Purefoy is as good as he looks in the trailer, he could nab it instead of oscar veteran Broadbent. Morgan Freeman has been so overlooked that it seems impossible he won't get it for this much buzzed about film. Gosling is one of the finest young actors working, and apparently his work in The Notebook is great, and even though that film probably won't get oscar love, it may help his chances for Stay. Hopkins could split it between Alexander and Proof. If he has great father-daughter chemistry with Paltrow, he'll get it for Proof. Clive Owen apparently owns Closer. I find it hard to believe the Academy will ovelook Garden State in the major categories, and Sarsgaard just seems the most likely nominee. The trailer montage for Crash was great, and Cheadle is so under rated, that hopefull he'll find himself in the race. I have no idea how big Dafoe's role in Aquatic is, but come on. It's WILLEM DAFOE.

[u].

Best Supporting Actress[/u].

[i]Cate Blanchett, [b]The Aviator[/b][/i].

Hope Davis, [b]Proof[/b].

Laura Dern, [b]We Don't Live Here Anymore[/b].

Laura Linney, [b]Kinsey[/b].

Natalie Portman, [b]Closer[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: Thandie Newton, [b]Crash[/b]; Anjelica Huston, [b]The Life Aquatic[/b]; Evan Rachel Wood, [b]The Upside of Anger[/b]; Naomi Watts, [b]Stay[/b].

Blanchett is playing a loved Hollywood icon, and from the few clips we see of her in the trailers, she looks great. Plus, she's overdue for a win. Hope Davis was a hopeful last year for American Splendor, and hopefull that breakout role will help her get a nomination for Proof. There was strong buzz for Dern at Sundance, and it's been years since she's had an acclaimed performance. Oscar loves a comeback. Linney is alwso an often overlooked actress, and this juicy role may get her another nod. Portman's looking to have a great year with Closer and Garden State, but Closer is apparently a surprising change of pace for Portman, and the buzz for her is great. Newton looked fantastic in the Crash montage. I'm not sure about the roles in Aquatic, but one should never count out Anjelica Huston. Evan Rachel Wood came so close to getting a nod last year (damn you, Keisha Castle Hughes) and if she's half as good in Upside of Anger as she was in Thirteen, she'll definitely be in the race.

[u]Best Director[/u].

Michael Mann, [b]Collateral[/b].

Mira Nair, [b]Vanity Fair[/b].

Mike Nichols, [b]Closer[/b].

[i]Martin Scorsese, [b]The Aviator[/b][/i].

Oliver Stone, [b]Alexander[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: Zach Braff, [b]Garden State[/b]; John Madden, [b]Proof[/b]; Paul Haggis, [b]Crash[/b]; Wes Anderson, [b]The Life Aquatic[/b].

This is probably the category that Collateral will get some love in. Vanity Fair is a huge production, and I just don't see how Nair woulnd't get a nom. Mike Nichols should ride the Closer high to a nod. But it's looking like it going to be Scorsese's year. He's never won an oscar, and this film looks fantastic. It should finally win him his gold. I'm not sure how long I'm going to keep Stone on the list, because, like I said, I have a gut feeling that Alexander is going to suck. Braff could get indie love for Garden State. If Proof is good, Madden could get his first nom since Shakespeare in Love, but advanced word isn't so hot. If Crash get good reviews Haggis could be looking at a breakthrough nomination. Anderson is always a possibility, but it seems that Aquatic will get more love for it's screenplay.

[u].

Best Original Screenplay[/u].

[b]The Aviator.

[i]Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind[/i].

Garden State.

I Heart Huckabees.

The Life Aquatic[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: [b]Stay, Crash, Collateral, Spanglish[/b].

The Aviator will probably get a nod just for being the Best Picture frontrunner. Eternal Sunshine not only had a fantastic screenplay, but also a huge amount of critical love. This should be Kaufman's year. Garden State was THE Sundance hit, but with Closer looking to be the indie fave this year, Garden State will probably get it's love here. It also has a rather large chance of beating out Sunshine. I Heart Huckabees should be just weird enough to get what "look, we're hip" nomination. Wes Anderson is brilliant. How could Aquatic not get some love. I took Stay off the list because I got weary do to the script for Troy. But Benioff's brilliant 25th Hour keeps Stay in the running. Crash seems to be the character drama of the year. Collateral is a possibility, just judging by the dialogue in the trailer. And the lighthearted Spanglish will probably be in the running, too.

[u].

Best Adapted Screenplay[/u].

[b]Closer.

Finding Neverland.

Proof.

Vanity Fair.

We Don't Live Here Anymore[/b].

[u]Don't Count Out[/u]: [b]A Home at the End of the World, Phantom of the Opera, Ladies in Lavender[/b].

With Closer looking to be the indie darling, this should be an easy win. Finding Neverland will probably nab a nod if it gets a BP nod. Proof will probably land a nod here even if the movie is mediocre, just because of the pedigree of the talent. Vanity Fair is a classic novel and if it's any good at all it's should be a guarenteed nomination. We Don't Live Here Anymore will hopefull follow in the footsteps of In the Bedroom and grab a nomination. A Home at the Endof the World's buzz isn't so hot. Phantom of the Opera is a risky move, and Ladies in Lavender's buzz dropped fast.